Monthly Archives: October 2011

Premier League Matchday 10 – Efficiency Analysis

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Shot efficiency:

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Some hope for Wigan, as they were the sixth most efficient team at generating shots from possession this weekend, despite registering another defeat. Oddly, despite obvious defensive frailties thoughout from Chelsea, and in the early stages from Arsenal, neither team registered a high number of shots in their 3-5 goalfest and so weren’t particularly efficient in possession. In fact, Manchester United conceded more shots and more shots on target than either Arsenal or Chelsea in their 1-0 win at Everton, making a mockery of Gary Neville’s assertion that the London clubs should take his old club as a defensive role model, and also backing up Everton’s fourth position in this table.

Shot on target efficiency:

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Both Chelsea and Arsenal skyrocket in the shots on target table; as the shoreline suggests, they may not have created as many shots as the average team, but the shots they did create were often in great positions and so were often on target. The opposite can be said for Aston Villa, Queens Park Rangers and West Bromwich Albion, all of which fall significantly when efficiency is restricted to shots on target.

Norwich City 3-3 Blackburn Rovers – Goal Analysis

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0-1 Hoilett

As Hoilett picks up the ball on the left, there doesn’t appear to be much danger.

Having driven infield from a similar position a few minutes before, and winning a foul, you’d think Norwich were aware of the danger he would pose if allowed to come infield again. Even so, Bennett’s feeble attempt at showing him outside sends him off in completely the wrong direction as Hoilett turns him and heads infield.

Naughton gives chase, but never really gets close enough to get a tackle in, while the remaining Norwich midfielders stand off and let Hoilett open the scoring with a great shot.

1-1 Morison

The ball is given away by Rochina as Blackburn break, meaning they are not quite set in the transition. Although this gives room for Hoolahan to cross, it’s not as if Blackburn aren’t in a decent position to defend. Barnett wins the ball and nods it back to Morison who has dropped off to the edge of the area.

As he controls, it sits up perfectly for a volley, and when the ball is falling like that when contact is made, it guarantees plenty of dip which takes it past Robinson.

1-2 Yakubu

Norwich get themselves into an awful state, with three Blackburn players all between the “lines” of the back four and three Norwich midfielders all standing on top of each other. It’s a simple pass through to cause plenty of problems for the Norwich back line.

Once there, X comes forward to close Formica down, and it’s a simple ball through to Yakubu in the space behind him.

It was a relatively distant shot from a relatively tight angle when it came, so Ruddy should really have done better than be beaten at his near post so easily.

1-3 Samba

It’s a wonderful cross down the corridor of uncertainty by Pederson, but he did well to work the angle for it; look at where the foul is committed:

Now look at where the freekick was taken from. It makes all the difference in the world in getting the angle to get the ball behind the defenders but take the keeper out of the game.

That being said, Samba shouldn’t be given the freedom of the six yard box to nod home at the far post.

2-3 Johnson

Blackburn are unlucky on two counts here. Firstly, Johnson’s attempted pass in to Holt is blocked by Petrovic, but only rolls into space for Johnson.

Secondly, his shot is deflected up and over Robinson, although Lowe was slow to get out to close down then turned his back on the shot.

3-3 Holt

They say when you’re at the bottom, it goes against you. Usually they’re referring to luck, but in Blackburn’s case they must mean horrific refereeing decisions. After losing to Everton when a phantom penalty was given against Samba at the death, they are denied three points here when N’Zonzi is clambered all over and as he raises his hands to appeal, the ball hits his elbow from behind. Utterly ridiculous refereeing. It was such an awful decision that the BBC commentator on Match of the Day was sufficiently moved to describe it as both ‘harsh’ and ‘ambiguous’, which is about as far from the fence as any BBC employee has ever ventured.

Sunderland 2-2 Aston Villa – Goal Analysis

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0-1 Petrov

As the ball is played infield to Petrov, he allows it to run across his body, wrong-footing Vaughan.

From there it’s a simple matter of lashing it into the top corner from 20 yards.

1-1 Wickham

Heskey gives the ball away in his own third, but Aston Villa seem well set. The ball is played to Sessegnon who is narrow, and Hutton pushes out to get tight to him.

He gets too tight too quickly, allowing Sessegnon to turn him with his first touch. Meanwhile Wickham is moving along the back line towards the vacated left back spot.

 

Collins decides to dive at the feet of Sessegnon instead of holding his line, and Sessegnon plays the ball in to Wickham who is now in the space behind both the left back and centreback. Dunne realises the danger and begins to move across but he will never get there as Wickham drills the ball into the far corner.

1-2 Dunne

It’s a set piece in the 85th minute, and I make this four Aston Villa players jumping against one Sunderland player. Awful.

2-2 Sessegnon

A soft free kick and a free header from the edge of the six yard box? Anything Sunderland can do, Aston Villa can do just as well.

Manchester City 3-1 Wolverhampton Wanderers – Goal Analysis

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1-0 Dzeko

He may have made an outstanding fingertip save to deny Dzeko just before halftime, but just after, Hennessey showed that he’s not quite so talented with his feet. He seems to be under no pressure as Aguero begins to close him down.

It wasn’t even that heavy a touch, but if a striker is getting this close you really should give up on the idea on playing it downfield and instead angle the ball towards the touchline to give yourself as much room as possible. Even rolling the ball square for a throw is preferable to getting your kick blocked in this situation. Stearman is making no effort to get back and offer a passing option, which is standard practice for a defender if the keeper has the ball; at this point a pass is not on but at least he would have been in a position to help out when the kick was blocked. As it is the block falls to Dzeko to tuck away.

2-0 Kolarov

Aguero turns the Wolves defence with a run in behind, and as they scamper back he pulls the ball back to Silva in space for a shot. Kolarov is alive to the threat of a rebound so moves into the area at the back post.

Edwards was always struggling to get back, but Stearman was slow to react, leaving a tap in for Kolarov once the ball rebounds from Hennessey.

2-1 Hunt

People are beginning to take note that Hart has a tendency to spill the ball in front of him, even on relatively simple shots such as this one. It gives no choice to Kompany other than to push Doyle over as he approaches the ball to tap in the rebound, and it’s a penalty and a red card.

3-1 Johnson

With Wolves chasing the equaliser against ten men, Balotelli breaks and they have to chase back. In much the same way as for the second goal, this leaves space for a midfielder if the ball is set back, and this time it’s Johnson with plenty of time to line up a shot into the bottom corner from 30 yards.

Hennessey is unsighted by his defenders, and only just starts to move as the ball is already halfway to the goal.

Chelsea 3-5 Arsenal – Goal Analysis

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1-0 Lampard

Mata receives the ball on the left, draws Santos into an attempt to win the ball but is able to skip inside. He could have opted to go down but instead knew he had beaten his man and that a cross was on.

Meanwhile Mertesacker appears to have Lampard covered; he’s in a good position, level with Santos and half turned so he can see both Lampard and the ball.

Lampard makes a run towards the near post, and Mertesacker sees the threat of a ball played along the yellow arrow and moves to cover, but Lampard checks his run and moves towards the centre of goal, where Mata’s ball meets him for a simple header, having made himself a couple of yards.

1-1 van Persie

Chelsea are set up well, with two tight banks of four and Mikel in between the two looking to pick up anybody who drops into that area.  They have Arsenal playing across in front of them and there doesn’t appear to be much danger.

Gervinho drops into the gap between the lines, looking to pick up the ball.

Mikel does his job and closes Gervinho down as the ball is played into him, and actually wins it. Meanwhile Ramsey drops into the position vacated by Mikel and is now in the danger area between the lines which it was Mikel’s job to protect.

Santos retrieves the ball and feeds Ramsey, who has time to turn. Meanwhile Gervinho is quicker to recover from the challenge with Mikel and makes a run towards the back four, and van Persie drifts across to the far side of the pitch.

Ramsey’s feigned shot squares up Terry and makes an angle for a disguised ball slid into Gervinho.

Once in behind, Gervinho is aware of van Persie’s position and commits Cech to roll the ball across for van Persie to tap into the empty net. Arsenal are often accused of trying to walk the ball into the net, but that’s exactly what they did here to great effect.

2-1 Terry

Arteta’s strange move away from the near post suggested that perhaps he had instructions to move to the far post if it looked like the corner was going deep, but he had already started moving before the corner was taken. Mertesacker is several yards from Terry, which gives him enough room to get ahead of his man to the ball. Compare Mertesacker’s approach with Koscielny, who is touch-tight to his man.

Look at Arteta’s position when Terry makes contact; most of the way across to the far post. Had he stayed where he was, it would have been a simple clearance.

2-2 Santos

Djourou steals the ball from Torres on a chelsea throw on the left, and as the ball is played to Song, he realises that with the congestion on the right side of the pitch there must be space on the left, so makes a clever turn with his first touch. Bosingwa has narrowed to his centreback which is the correct thing to do, but then for some reason pushes up the field leaving a huge gap at right back. Sturridge doesn’t bother to track Santos as he makes a forward run through the inside left channel into a huge amount of space.

As the number on his back, an a perusal of his YouTube compilations suggest, he fancies himself as a left winger, and shows that he knows how to finish by driving the ball underneath Cech without hesitation.

2-3 Walcott

If anybody can explain how you score from this position, please write in.

Walcott gets up, retrieves the ball, then flicks it left to draw in Terry…

…right to pass Ivanovic…

…before burying it past Cech. Amazing.

3-3 Mata

Santos plays a poor pass, but as the interception rolls back towards him, Lukaku levers him off the ball and pushes him over, allowing Meireles space on the right. The transition means that Mata is afforded space in front of the Arsenal back four for probably the first time in the match.

As Mata receives the ball Song is 15 yards away, so it looks like Mata has all the time in the world to either roll in Lampard or Torres or take a shot himself.

Mata is slow enough to shoot that Song makes it over to block, but all he can get on it is a slight touch which gives the ball some added dip and takes it over Szczesny.

3-4 van Persie

Malouda plays an incredibly lazy pass back in the general direction of Terry, who makes an adequate impression of a supertanker doing a three point turn in trying to recover, only to end up on his hands and knees on the floor.

Once in, it’s a one-on-one for van Persie to commit Cech and roll the ball into an empty net.

3-5 van Persie

As Chelsea chase an equaliser, the ball is headed clear to Meireles, but Rosicky puts in a brave header and wins the ball.

That releases Arsenal into a four-on-two break, as the referee plays the advantage for Meireles’ high kick.

The ball is played to van Persie, who simply leathers it at Cech and the power and swerve on the ball seals the hattrick.

Chelsea 3-5 Arsenal – Match Analysis

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The teamsheets promised intriguing battles all over the pitch. 25 goals in 26 games in 2011 puts van Persie higher than even Messi, so would Chelsea be able to handle him? With Terry distracted by off the field issues and Ivanovic parachuted in after Luiz’s poor performance against Queens Park Rangers, it would be an open question. At the other end, no Drogba, but no Vermaelen, and a chance for Torres to try to exploit an Arsenal high line? Mata and Gervinho would be important in direct link with their respective forwards, and the potential for Mata to test Djourou at right back would be a cause for concern for Arsenal fans, and would Song be up to the challenge of picking him up when he moved infield? Finally, would creativity in midfield be skewed in Arsenal’s favour, with Ramsey and Arteta over Lampard and Ramires?

It would take only 90 seconds for Chelsea to get in behind Djourou with Cole on the overlap, and within 4 minutes he would be in again. Both times the Arsenal centrebacks were able to clear the cross, but there were certainly signs that Djourou’s defensive inabilities would be targeted directly. Sagna simply wouldn’t have allowed himself to be exposed in this way. Koscielny started brightly and was at least forming some kind of resistance in a thoroughly second choice back four, but Chelsea controlled the opening period of the game almost exclusively.

Ironically the best goalscoring chance would fall to Arsenal after 10 minutes. Walcott, almost purpose-built as a release for when his team are under pressure, received the ball on the left, skinned Cole with ease and delivered a goal on a plate for Gervinho to inexplicably skew wide with his wrong foot. Moments later, another Walcott cross would be guided just over by van Persie. Almost immediately a Mata cross was nodded in by Lampard at the other end. Such was the open nature of the game that it seemed the opening goal wouldn’t have much bearing on the final result, as there would surely be many more goals to come based on the defensive issues on clear display at either end.

Sturridge was released twice into fantastic positions, but wasted the first with indecision over whether to shoot or pass, and the second by mimicking Gervinho and trying to shoot with the wrong foot for the job. Arsenal’s high line was being exploited on a regular basis, but Chelsea’s was hardly immune to a similar fate, with Gervinho and van Persie caught narrowly offside when a matter of inches from one-on-one opportunities. Finally they would both breach the centre of Chelsea’s back line, as Ramsey slid in Gervinho who was aware of van Persie behind him awaiting a tap in with Cech committed. Arsenal are often accused of trying to walk the ball into the net, and they lived up to the stereotype perfectly here.

Almost in sympathy with Djourou’s plight on the right, Santos was struggling to contain Mata on the left. All too often he was getting square on, and committing himself where he just needed to contain. New to the league, new to the team, and with the 11 on his back suggesting much about how he sees his game, it’s too early to judge him as a left back with finality, but it’s clear that he needs to up his concentration at the very least as he looks nonchalant in defence.

Chelsea would make it 2-1 from a corner, no doubt lighting up the eyes of statisticians who could yet again roll out Arsenal’s set piece concession percentages. It’s not a surprise that it’s such an issue, when Mertesacker gives Terry enough room to get across him, and Arteta decides to move from the front post where he would have made a simple clearance, and instead stand inside the goal where he could do nothing whatever happened.

2-1 at the break, then, but surely more goals in the offing. It’s not the quantity of shots taken but rather the positions that the shots were taken from which tells the real story of the first half.

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Within the first minute of the second half Arsenal had added two good chances to that tally, suggesting that any halftime adjustments made by Chelsea wouldn’t make them any more solid, before Santos took advantage of some lax tracking back by Sturridge to pop up on the left and bring Arsenal back to parity with a cool finish worthy of a number 11.

The fifth goal would epitomise the match and begin to raise questions of if we were actually witnessing some sort of bizarre alternate universe or the effects of some Asian betting scandal where both teams were trying desperately to lose but unable to stop scoring themselves. Walcott drove in from the right, lost his footing and fell over, at which point Cole, Terry and Ivanovic all waited for him to get back up, drive through all three of them and beat Cech at his near post.

This sparked a period of Arsenal dominance where they were able to release several players in behind the ailing Chelsea defence, and nearly release Ramsey and Walcott into one-on-ones with Cech but for delayed passes. The threat to the Arsenal defence seemed to subside once they took the lead, although even a fourth Arsenal goal and a two goal lead wouldn’t necessarily be enough to secure three points with any comfort at this stage.

Unfortunately after 80 minutes of an absorbing mixture of beautiful and dire football, the referee would have a say in the sixth goal, allowing Lukaku to block Santos from the ball so that Meireles could retrieve it and feed Mata to score with a fantastic shot which may have been aided by a slight nick off Song but looked a goal regardless. It was Mata’s first real contribution of the day, surprising given the nature of the game. However the refereeing error would be annulled by a similar one from Malouda and Terry gifting van Persie and Arsenal their lead once more. There was of course time for van Persie to complete a hattrick as Arsenal broke 4-on-2 with Chelsea chasing the game.

On reflection, where the first half demonstrated terrible defensive flaws from both sides in equal measure, only one side were able to stem the flow after the break. In all honesty Arsenal could have scored more in the second half, whereas Szczesny was under little pressure even as Chelsea chased the game. Koscielny was perhaps the only defender who departed the game with an enhanced reputation. Once again, the location of the shots taken in the second half tells the story, with two of the Arsenal goals tap-ins to an empty net and the other three goals shots with no defenders to block or even put the striker off.

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With 8 wins from 9, a big win at one of their top 4 rivals and now only 3 points behind Chelsea, it is safe to say that Arsenal’s crisis is over. Not a bad time for Vermaelen to return to the team either. As for Chelsea, two London derbies lost in a week and an amazing propensity to gift chances to their opponents is uncharacteristic of what used to be a tight defence. The personnel haven’t changed, but the approach has, and it clearly isn’t working at this point in time.

Everton 0-1 Manchester United – Goal Analysis

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0-1 Hernandez

Manchester United work space for a cross well on the left, although there are plenty of Everton men back so there appears to be little danger. Only a long cross to Park could be of any concern here.

 

Strangely, Baines looks over his shoulder, sees Park, and decides that he is the bigger danger than Hernandez who is in the centre of goal. This leaves Hernandez with a simple finish from three yards.

Manchester United 1-6 Manchester City – Match Analysis

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Manchester United backed themselves by going for their usual attacking lineup of two wingers and two forwards, with Welbeck alongside Rooney and Young given yet another opportunity to make an impression on a game; something he hasn’t managed since August. Park was the more solid option not taken by Ferguson. Mancini surprisingly elected not to play Nasri, who would surely have challenged Smalling’s positional fallibility, or Dzeko who would have caused Ferdinand and Evans problems in the same way that Suarez did for Liverpool. Instead Milner and Balotelli were selected to offer solidity and absurdity.

Manchester United started the stronger in a disjointed opening period, with Young making the most of some soft but silly challenges on the left wing. There was however little threat for Hart in these opening exchanges, although Manchester City were struggling to get a foothold in the game.

It would be 15 minutes before Manchester City would put any meaningful possession together, with Richards pushing down the right as Young looked confused as to his defensive responsibilities. It wouldn’t result in work for De Gea as their shot was deflected wide, but this and a clever run in a tight area from Silva, beating Young, Evra and Fletcher twice, would bring Manchester City into the game. Balotelli would shortly bring them into the lead with a calmly-placed shot into the corner from the edge of the area after a pullback from Milner.

It was certainly against the run of play, although there was a clear sense that Manchester City were content to soak up pressure and back themselves defensively; a sense that was supported by the statistics in the opening half an hour. Although possession was certainly in Manchester United’s favour, shots were coming in at their own goal, rather than at their opponent’s. There would be no prize for guessing which side would appear higher in this site’s efficiency analysis based on the opening 30 minutes.

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Manchester United were struggling with a lack of creativity in the centre of the pitch. Fletcher and Anderson aren’t known for their incisive play or ability to unlock a defence, and with Barry and Toure sitting in front of the defence there was very little to concern Hart. Looking at the Manchester United bench didn’t suggest an obvious replacement, and demonstrated why the summer chase for Sneijder was necessary. It’s not a problem for Manchester City.

This was the least of Manchester United’s problems after two minutes of the second half, as Evans was correctly shown a red card for pulling back Balotelli. Suddenly the pattern of play would switch completely, with Manchester City taking control of possession and their opponents forced to play on the break. In a sense this would play into Manchester United’s hands – if they could break with the pace of Welbeck, Nani and Young, then a playmaker would be unnecessary. Of course, keeping Manchester City at bay with a man less would be more of an issue.

Manchester United did create some chances in the ten minute spell after the red card, the best falling to Young who could only choke his shot well off target, where Milner deflected it back on to him and behind. However, Milner, Silva and Balotelli combined to score the second and kill the game as a contest and spectacle. The only interest for the neutral now would be how many Manchester City would score and if there would be a consolation.

Red cards make drawing conclusions from matches meaningless, but Manchester United should be concerned at their ineffectiveness in the first half when the sides were evenly matched, as it doesn’t bode well for future matches against strong defences this season. The lack of threat to Hart’s goal and their own frailties in protecting De Gea’s did not bode well for the second half even before the red card. Further, the scale of the defeat to their bitterest rivals will send a shock through the Manchester United ranks, and it remains to be seen if the second humiliation of a top four team at Old Trafford this season has the same knock on effects on the losers as the first did.

Manchester United 1-6 Manchester City – Goal Analysis

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0-1 Balotelli

For the first time, Manchester United let Silva get on the ball and turned, in between the lines. Fletcher and Smalling now have to deal with Silva and Milner who is off screen to the left.

Fletcher tries to close down Silva but doesn’t ever get close, and Smalling seems completely unsure of what to do so remains in the same place, neither moving wider to be in a position to close down Milner nor pushing up to close down Silva.  Once it is clear that Fletcher is moving towards Silva, Milner should become Smalling’s priority.  Meanwhile, Balotelli drops off the forward line to find space.

 

Milner plays the ball back to Silva, but it’s not ideally placed and passes between Silva and Ferdinand.  It rolls to Balotelli, who uses Evans’ position to shield his carefully placed shot from De Gea.

0-2 Balotelli

A simple third man run from Silva is too clever for Anderson, who is square on and flat footed. All Milner has to do is flick the ball into the space beyond Young for Silva to pick it up. Young and Evra had switched in this passage of play so Young is covering in the usual left back position.

Once Silva is in the box, Milner makes a run in from the flank looking for Silva to drop the ball into his path for a shot.  Young doesn’t bother to track this run at all.  Meanwhile Smalling has already let Balotelli get on his blindside at the far post.

Once Milner realises that there isn’t much space to the inside of Silva but plenty outside because Young hasn’t tracked his man, he bends his run towards the byline and Silva plays him in.  Now that Balotelli has all the room in the world at the far post, any cross which evades De Gea is a simple tap in, and Milner provides.

0-3 Aguero

Seeing Milner between the lines, Ferdinand pushes out of defence to close him down instead of telling one of his midfielders to do so, leaving a huge hole in the centre of defence for Balotelli to exploit.

Ferdinand’s buckling of the back line is clear to see.  This drags Evra infield with Balotelli and leaves Richards in space on the right for Milner to play in when he receives Balotelli’s layoff.

Once in this position, Aguero is alive to the threat at the back post, and for some reason Smalling stops, allowing him an easy tap in.  If Smalling hadn’t stopped running back he would have been in a position to clear the ball easily.

1-3 Fletcher

As Manchester United work the ball back around from the byline, Fletcher picks it up in midfield with Barry left with a huge distance to cover to close him down, giving him plenty of thinking time.

As Fletcher plays the ball past Barry to Hernandez who is dropping deep, Barry turns in the direction of the ball instead of the man, creating a couple of yards between the two players as they chase back. This is enough room for Hernandez to set the ball for Fletcher to hit first time and he places it past Hart into the top corner.

1-4 Dzeko

De Gea rolls the ball out to Ferdinand, who in trying to play it back chips it out for a corner under no pressure whatsoever.

Then, although Manchester United look to be set up well from the following corner…

…both Jones and Ferdinand don’t make any attempt to move as the ball is won at the near post, leaving Lescott and Dzeko free to turn the ball in at their leisure.

1-5 Silva

Despite being 4-1 down in injury time, Manchester United still seemed intent on shipping as many goals as they possibly could by overcommitting and leaving themselves wide open on the break, much in the same way that Arsenal did at Old Trafford a couple of months ago.  This three-on-two led to Silva sliding the ball underneath De Gea for the fifth.  Yes, that is Welbeck desperately chasing back in an attempt to become the third Manchester United defender, so at least one player in red was still trying.

1-6 Dzeko

There was still time, amazingly, for another complete disappearance of the majority of the Manchester United team, this time resulting in a second goal for Dzeko after an adroit volley through from Silva. Not the hardest skill when you’ve only got two defenders to avoid and an entire half of the field to aim at.